Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/31/22
In our poll, about 19% of respondents say they have already voted, which would put us in the turnout range of about 4.8 million, give or take a few hundred thousand on either side. This is a bit higher than 2018 though well below 2020 levels, which lines up if you look at early voting data (though older) that is a little ahead of 2018. We are seeing a shift in Republicans towards Election Day so there should be a larger number coming in then. We also only have 13% of voters who still have to vote early, and some might drop off so expect the bulk of the voting in Ohio to be on Election Day.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/30/22
As the statewide average for gas in Michigan drops below $4, we also see the generic ballot flip towards the Democrats, and Governor Whitmer makes some gains on the ballot to +7. Interestingly enough, Whitmer and GOP candidate Tudor Dixon’s image stayed about even. One thing to keep an eye on in the closing week is that among voters who have not yet voted but say that they definitely will. Dixon holds a 50% / 45% (+5%) lead but falls behind by 10 points down 39% / 49% among those who say they probably will.
Read MoreCampaigns & Elections: Three Questions for Brent Buchanan of Cygnal
First Published in Campaigns & Elections’ CampaignTech October Newsletter The following interview is from Campaigns & Elections’ CampaignTech Newsletter. Discover more on Campaigns & Elections on their website. Brent Buchanan is the founder and CEO of Cygnal, a Republican survey research firm. We spoke about the importance of multimodal polling in a busy election cycle, how […]
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/29/22
Republicans moved up a point on the generic ballot while Democrats moved down, and it is back to R+11. There is a question on what moves when the generic ballot moves from poll to poll.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/28/22
The gubernatorial race has stayed at a consistent 6-point lead for Governor Whitmer. The Governor has added a little to her image while Dixon has fallen a bit over time, most likely due to the lopsided TV spending in the closing weeks. This is backed by Whitmer’s positive image movement with older voters that you would expect following advertising.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/27/22
There has been no movement on the generic ballot and not much shift in the statewide races, but we are now looking at JD Vance up by 5 in the Senate race when he was up by 4 last time. Vance is also keeping pace among the share who have already voted, which is now up to 12.2% of all voters.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/26/22
There are still two more weeks left to go, but we believe that nearly a quarter of all those who are going to vote have already decided to do so absentee by mail. We also believe that a majority of those who have already voted are aged 65 and older and the majority is Democratic. On the recalled ballot, Biden won these 66% / 32% (+34%), and Whitmer is ahead 67% / 31% (+36%).
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/25/22
In the marquee Senate race, Vance’s lead has stayed a steady 4%, and time is running out for Ryan. Undecideds dropped and each candidate gained a point, so the window of uncertainty is closing. We are only at 9% of respondents saying that they have voted but with a recalled ballot of 68% / 27% (+41%) for Trump. Vance is winning them 68% / 32% (+36%) with Ryan falling behind metrics needed to pull even or win. Over three quarters of respondents told us they weren’t planning to vote until Election Day – unlike other states where more and more are voting early – so there is still time for movement.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/24/22
Whitmer is just below the 50% mark with a 5-and-a-half-point lead over Dixon (though that will probably shrink as we’ll talk about in the next section), and the generic ballot holds steady at R+2. Incumbent Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also has a seven-point lead of 48% / 41%, but in the Attorney General race, Dana Nessel only leads 45% / 43% (+2%). The table below shows that some of this is a higher undecided number for Democrats but also more undecideds with Independents too. As partisans return home, and without the actual third-party number being higher, it would not be surprising to see this margin wind up similar to the other statewide candidates.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/23/22
Democrats have very slightly tightened the generic and named ballots but continue to suffer from an enthusiasm problem, as Republicans have strong negative feelings towards President Biden and the direction of the country and are ready to vote. One of our questions asks enthusiasm on a 1 through 10 scale, with 10 being the most excited to vote. The table below takes the Senate ballot as an example and shows that JD Vance voters are much more likely to say that they are a 10 out of 10, while nearly 40% of Ryan voters chose 6 or lower.
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