WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 8, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following national poll (conducted Oct. 2-3) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
“In the final month before Election Day, Harris’ image is leveling off, indicating she has likely reached her peak favorability,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “Meanwhile, Trump is polling better than he has historically, and those so-called ‘shy’ Trump voters, are no longer reserved about their support for him. On voters’ top issue of inflation and the economy, Republicans still hold the advantage, but a surge in messaging on a specific economic vision for the future is a must. The numbers are tight, but this emphasizes the importance of turnout operations and making sure low-propensity voters who tend to lean toward Trump show up. Both Trump and down-ballot Republicans also have an opportunity to turnout the late deciders, those who this poll shows plan to make their decision a few days prior to or on Election Day.”
Here are Buchanan’s top takeaways:
Horse Race: Despite glowing mainstream media coverage and advertising advantages for Harris, she remains only slightly ahead of Trump on both the full (Trump 45 – Harris 47) and head-to-head ballots (Trump 47 – Harris 50). Independents and college-educated men shifted in Trump’s direction.
VP Debate: JD Vance’s image had serious positive movement from 40 percent very unfavorable and 22% very favorable (-18 net very unfav.) to 36% very unfavorable and 32 percent very favorable (only -4 net very unfav.). Walz’s image remains static.
Early Voting: As of October 3rd, 3.1 percent of Americans have already cast their ballot. These voters are heavily Democratic, older, more female, and less likely to be religious.
Key Demos: Looking “under the hood”, Harris’ image among Independents net shifted -10 points, going from a +6 net favorability to -4. Trump’s image among the same group shifted +13 points, but he remains 21 points underwater with them. Sixty-nine percent of Trump 2020 voters believe their neighbors are voting for Trump, while only 54 percent of Biden 2020 voters believe their neighbors are voting for Harris (and 21% believe their neighbors are voting for Trump).
Top Issues: concerns over inflation and the economy (34%) remains the top priority for voters with illegal immigration (17%) a distant second followed by ‘threats to democracy’ (12%). Abortion (8%) as an election concern has risen slightly since leftwing ad spending has increased.
News Consumption: Across the board, cable news consumption (38% of voters) is down while social media (46% of voters) consumption is up. Trump is performing better across all mediums compared to how voters in each medium voted in 2020. 26% of Black voters are getting news from X (up from 10%), while news consumption on Facebook among Hispanics (30%) doubled (up from 13%). YouTube also grew significantly among non-white voters. This proves the growing importance online communication will make in this election.
Music & Pizza: Half of Trump 2020 voters listen to country music compared to only a
quarter of Biden 2020 voters. Independent voters are more likely to listen to rock music (59%) compared to Republicans (46%) or Democrats (46%). Lower-propensity voters are more likely to listen to rap/hip-hop and pop compared to those who vote more regularly. Sadly, nearly half (43%) of Americans believe pineapple belongs on pizza. Democrats lean more strongly “yes”, while older men are the most repulsed by it.