In the 2020 presidential election, no region of the country surprised national political experts more than the Rio Grande Valley in south Texas. Counties like Starr which Hilary Clinton won overwhelmingly with 79% of the vote in 2016 shifted hard towards Donald Trump and the Republican Party four short years later.
Some political analysts have argued the pandemic created a one-off opportunity—Democratic operatives and campaigns avoided in-person events in favor of Zoom calls while Republican campaign workers pressed on, undeterred, with door-to-door campaigning. The playing field is level now, the theory goes, and Hispanic voters in the Valley will return safely home to the Democratic Party in 2024.
At Cygnal, I led a recent public opinion survey of Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley and found that they have become true swing voters, likely for the long haul—in reaction to the Democratic Party’s own leftward turn.
Our survey found a Biden-Trump rematch would be neck-and-neck among Hispanic voters in the RGV. Biden leads by just 4% (47% – 43%) over Trump, and Biden’s lead would shrink to 3% (47% – 44%) against a generic Republican nominee. Should Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., make the ballot in Texas, it is not clear yet which of the major party candidates his presence would help. Biden wins 40% in a three-way ballot, Trump garners 39%, and Kennedy, Jr., snares 11%.
This shift towards Trump and the GOP is in reaction to the Democratic Party’s embrace of progressive stances on immigration, the economy, crime, and foreign policy. Take the issue of immigration—for years, the national Democratic left has embraced an amnesty-based approach. Only recently have some prominent Democrats like New York City Mayor Eric Adams begun to call for securing the border, a position deeply unpopular with the left’s activist base…
Read the full op-ed by Cygnal Pollster & Director of Client Strategy John Rogers in The Dallas Morning News: https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2023/12/07/hispanics-in-the-rio-grande-valley-are-now-swing-voters/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_dallasnews