Turnout demographics expected to be similar to 2010 general election
A poll conducted this week by Cygnal, a Montgomery-based political strategy, research, media, and public relations firm, indicates that statewide Republican candidates, led by popular incumbent Governor Robert Bentley, should cruise to victory on November 4, 2014.
The survey of landline and cellular phones was conducted on October 13-15 with 807 known general voters, giving the flash poll a margin of error of +/- 3.45%. Cygnal is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns or outside groups in any of the races. The attorney general race was not included because Cygnal does work with RAGA in other states and is prohibited from releasing poll results about Republican AG candidates.
“Just like 2010, our poll shows that statewide Republican candidates will perform very well based on the more conservative nature of the Alabama electorate,” said Managing Partner Brent Buchanan. “The gubernatorial candidates are doing enough advertising to maintain interest in the election, though there should be very few demographic changes in the turnout compared to four years ago.”
“Nothing really stood out to me in the survey results,” said VP of Data & Strategy Cory Brown. “Things in 2014 appear to be very similar to the last election for constitutional offices, most likely because there have been no surprises or unusual spending patterns.”
Governor Bentley leads Democrat Parker Griffith 57.0% to 35.7%. Lt. Governor Ivey is ahead of Democrat James Fields 52.5% to 36.6%. The Republican candidates for secretary of state and agriculture commissioner are all ahead of their Democrat challengers by at least 20pts. Jim Zeigler only leads his Democrat opponent by 17.4pts. Over 66% of Alabama voters in a general election would vote for a lottery, if given the opportunity.